HIGH TECH IN EARTH SPACE RESEARCH

Risk assessment of creating technical system samples in fuzzy terms

Bochkov A. P., Khomonenko A.D., Baranovsky A.M.

We propose an approach to calculating risk assessments in two situations: when developing and modernizing technical system samples, and when working out alternative promising technical system samples based on existing, often used, operating principles and operating principles that are fundamentally different from existing principles.

The purpose of the article is to improve the quality of research processes and substantiate the development of technical systems based on existing principles of action and on principles of action that are fundamentally different from existing principles, achieved by performing calculations to assess the risk level of the considered variants of the technical system in fuzzy terms that meet the information conditions of the early stages of development. The mathematical models of risk assessment create a sample of technical systems based on existing principles and the principles of action fundamentally different from the existing principles. In the first case, the factors that hinder the acceptance of the sample into operation and their characteristics are formed. Factors due to their uncertainty are evaluated using fuzzy terms (linguistic variables), and risk assessment is based on them. A distinctive feature of the model is the specification of risk factors and their characteristics in accordance with the features of the development of technical systems, specifying the order of evaluation by stages in the form of an algorithm. When forming a risk assessment of a sample of a technical system, in the second case, a distinctive feature is highlighted – the actual absence of characteristics of risk factors and a significant degree of uncertainty in determining the factors themselves. This predetermined the use of interval and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, on the basis of which the procedure for obtaining the probability of an unfavorable outcome for creating the considered version of the appearance of a sample of a technical system on the principles of action radically different from the existing principles is proposed. The results of numerical calculations of the risk level on specific examples with the corresponding comparative interpretation of the calculation data are presented. The main result is an assessment of the risk of creating technical systems based on existing operating principles and operating principles that are fundamentally different from existing principles that meet the information conditions of the early stages of creating, developing and upgrading systems.

Editorial board

Bobrowsky V.I.
(Ph.D., Associate Professor, Head of Department of "INTELTEH")

Borisov V.V.
(Ph.D., Professor, Actual Member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Professor, Department of Computer Science of MPEI)

Budko P.A.
(Ph.D., Professor, Department of Technical communication and automation in S.M. Budjonny Military Academy of the Signal Corps)

Budnikov S.A.
(Ph.D., associate professor, Actual Member of the Academy of Education Informatization, Head of the automated control systems Department in Russian Air Force Military Educational and Scientific Center “Air Force Academy named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Y.A. Gagarin”)

Verhova G.V.
(Ph.D., Professor, Head of Department of Automation communication companies In the Bonch-Bruevich Saint Petersburg State University of Telecommunications)

Goncharevsky V.S.
(Ph.D., Professor, Honored Worker of Science and Technology of the Russian Federation, Professor of technologies and technical support and maintenance of the automated control systems in Military Space Academy of A.F. Mozhaysky)

Komashinskiy V.I.
(Ph.D., Professor, professor of processing and transmission discrete messages in the Bonch-Bruevich Saint Petersburg State University of Telecommunications)

Kirpanev A.V.
(Ph.D., Associate Professor, Head of JSC "Scientific Production Enterprise "Radar MMS")

Kurnosov V.I.
(Ph.D., Professor, Academician of Academy of Sciences of the Arctic, Academician of the International Academy of Informatization, International Academy of defense, security, law and order, corresponding member of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Senior Researcher" Open Joint Stock Company "Scientific Research Institute "Rubin")

Manuilov Y.S.
(Ph.D., Professor, Department of automated control systems space complexes in Military Space Academy of A.F. Mozhaysky)

Morozov A.V.
(Ph.D., Professor, Actual Member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Head of the Department of automated command and control systems in Military Аcademy of troops of antiaircraft defense)

Moshak N.N.
(Ph.D., Associate Professor, head of the department of "INTELTEH")

Prorok V.Y.
(Ph.D., Professor, professor of automatic control systems in Military Space Academy of A.F. Mozhaysky)

Semenov S.S.
(Ph.D., associate professor, professor of technical communication and automation in S.M. Budjonny Military Academy of the Signal Corps)

Sinicyn E.A.
(Ph.D., Professor, Head of the Research Department of JSC "The All-Russian research institute of radio equipment")

Shatrakov Y.G.
(Ph.D., Professor, Honored Worker of Science, Scientific Secretary of JSC "The All-Russian research institute of radio equipment")