HIGH TECH IN EARTH SPACE RESEARCH

Methodology of risk and uncertainty in the early stages of the development life-cycle ASU

Volkov V.F., Tolmachev A.A.

The paper proposed two approaches to choose the scheme taking into account factors of risk and uncertainty at the stages of development of technical proposals and preliminary design of the ASU, part of the new development of organizational-technical systems (OTS).

The first approach is based on the use of the theory of fuzzy sets. Based on this technique allows a quantitative evaluation of the truth of the expert report on the progress of work on the ASU project, to assess the risk of failing to meet customer requirements on indicators such as the number of objects that can operate ASU; duration solutions information and calculation tasks; the time required to collect information about the accepted objects; the time taken to pass control information to the Executive authorities; the degree of protection from ASU information influence of the enemy; the degree of protection from ASU physical forces of the enemy. Each of these indicators is regarded as a linguistic variable consisting of the following terms: "very low level"; "low level"; "average index level"; "high level"; "very high level".

The second approach takes into account the fuzzy nature of the requirements for the performance of OTS, inevitable for the early stages of the life cycle of the OTS and ASU. On the example of estimation of efficiency of functioning of the subsystem of data transmission (SDT) developed a methodology for the justification of requirements to the parameters of the SDT, providing a guaranteed likelihood of the control signal is not below the legislative level. This takes into account that in the early stages of the life cycle of OTS can be addressed either "direct" objectives of the study the effectiveness or "reverse". Direct problems consist in calculation of basic or partial indicators of the effectiveness of the SDT. The inverse problem can be grouped into three classes: structural synthesis of automatic control system, ASU and parametric synthesis, algorithmic synthesis of control systems. The granularity of the developed techniques is determined by the accuracy of the forecast of the situation, which will be implemented by the use of the OTS and the functioning of the ASU.

The subject of published articles on the nomenclature of specialties

2.2.15 Systems, networks and telecommunications (technical sciences)

2.3.1 System analysis, management and processing of information (technical sciences)

2.3.5 Mathematical and software of computing systems, complexes and computer networks (technical sciences)

2.3.6 Methods and information protection systems, information security (technical sciences)

2.5.13 Design, design and production of aircraft (technical sciences)

2.5.16 Dynamics, ballistics, the movement of aircraft (technical sciences)

Editorial board

Bobrowsky V.I.
(Ph.D., Associate Professor, Head of Department of "INTELTEH")

Borisov V.V.
(Ph.D., Professor, Actual Member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Professor, Department of Computer Science of MPEI)

Budko P.A.
(Ph.D., Professor, Department of Technical communication and automation in S.M. Budjonny Military Academy of the Signal Corps)

Budnikov S.A.
(Ph.D., associate professor, Actual Member of the Academy of Education Informatization, Head of the automated control systems Department in Russian Air Force Military Educational and Scientific Center “Air Force Academy named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Y.A. Gagarin”)

Verhova G.V.
(Ph.D., Professor, Head of Department of Automation communication companies In the Bonch-Bruevich Saint Petersburg State University of Telecommunications)

Goncharevsky V.S.
(Ph.D., Professor, Honored Worker of Science and Technology of the Russian Federation, Professor of technologies and technical support and maintenance of the automated control systems in Military Space Academy of A.F. Mozhaysky)

Komashinskiy V.I.
(Ph.D., Professor, professor of processing and transmission discrete messages in the Bonch-Bruevich Saint Petersburg State University of Telecommunications)

Kirpanev A.V.
(Ph.D., Associate Professor, Head of JSC "Scientific Production Enterprise "Radar MMS")

Kurnosov V.I.
(Ph.D., Professor, Academician of Academy of Sciences of the Arctic, Academician of the International Academy of Informatization, International Academy of defense, security, law and order, corresponding member of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Senior Researcher" Open Joint Stock Company "Scientific Research Institute "Rubin")

Manuilov Y.S.
(Ph.D., Professor, Department of automated control systems space complexes in Military Space Academy of A.F. Mozhaysky)

Morozov A.V.
(Ph.D., Professor, Actual Member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Head of the Department of automated command and control systems in Military Аcademy of troops of antiaircraft defense)

Moshak N.N.
(Ph.D., Associate Professor, head of the department of "INTELTEH")

Prorok V.Y.
(Ph.D., Professor, professor of automatic control systems in Military Space Academy of A.F. Mozhaysky)

Semenov S.S.
(Ph.D., associate professor, professor of technical communication and automation in S.M. Budjonny Military Academy of the Signal Corps)

Sinicyn E.A.
(Ph.D., Professor, Head of the Research Department of JSC "The All-Russian research institute of radio equipment")

Shatrakov Y.G.
(Ph.D., Professor, Honored Worker of Science, Scientific Secretary of JSC "The All-Russian research institute of radio equipment")